THE RESULTS OF A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF BIRTH RATE AND FERTILITY RATE FORMATION IN DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE WORLD AND IN UKRAINE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32782/2306-2436.13.1.2024.319Keywords:
monitoring of demographic indicators, regional characteristics of birth rates, fertility, system programs and measures.Abstract
Abstract. Background. The relevance is determined by the expediency of monitoring the main demographic indicators in Ukraine in comparison with other countries and parts of the world. Materials and methods. The dynamics of the formation of birth and fertility rates in different parts of the world and in Ukraine were studied based on the data of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and the data of the World Bank, with an assessment of the trends in their formation for the 30-year period from 1992 to 2021. Research methods included: system approach and system analysis, graphic analysis, medical-statistical and content analysis. Results. The decrease in the number of the population in Ukraine during the study period (-20.1%) is accompanied by a decrease (from 11.4 in 1992 to 7.3 per 1 000 people in 2021, absolute growth -4.1; growth rate -35.96%) of the previously low birth rate, the value of which according to the results of 2021 was 2.3 times (p<0.001) lower than the world average birth rate (16.9 per 1 000 people). The fertility rate also decreased in Ukraine (from 1.67 in 1992 to 1.16 children in 2021, absolute increase -0.51; growth rate -30.7%), the value of which in 2021 in Ukraine (1.16 children against 2.27 per 1 woman of reproductive age in the world, or 1.95 times less, p<0.001), significantly differed from the world average. Conclusions. The obtained results of the retrospective study reflect the prerequisites formed in Ukraine for reducing the population and deepening the negative natural increase. The above justifies the urgent need to implement the state strategy, regional systemic measures aimed at overcoming the identified negative demographic trends. In their absence, depopulation trends (formed even before 2021) will become inevitable, which will be reflected in a significant reduction of the socio-economic potential and defense capability of the state already in the near future.
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